A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
